Edward Snowden and the Long Odds of a Trump Pardon

Roger LeBlanc (author of The Punter’s Tale)

(Art by Lliam Bosaz-Reaves)

If Trump had been a regular on “Dancing with the Stars” instead of “The Apprentice,” his signature dance move would’ve been the 180-degree turn. By now most world leaders have figured out that when the stakes get too high, the President twirls away.

American viewers, awash in Trump’s tyrannical tweets and neoliberal screeching in reaction to them, might not recognize Trump’s propensity to retreat. But foreign leaders and intelligence agency chiefs have seen it time and again.

When Trump realizes sticking to his guns means risking serious personal or political damage, he heads in the other direction. The bluster diminishes. And the issue at hand — China trade imbalances, Syrian troop withdrawals, the feud with the Fed to strengthen the U.S. dollar — either vanishes or gets resolved in the other party’s favor.

That’s bad news for Edward Snowden.

To Pardon or To Beg the Deep State’s Pardon? That Is the Question

With Joe Biden leading in the polls as summer drew to a close, Trump floated the notion of a pardon for Snowden. Voices on the far left and far right joined in celebration. Snowden, the man who exposed former NSA chief James Clapper as an unabashed liar and enemy of the American people, might be able to end his exile.

But U.S. intelligence agencies see Snowden as an existential threat. Snowden showed the world that the NSA’s skill at espionage is eclipsed only by its skill at lying about its espionage. Having a U.S. president applaud and exonerate the person who exposed the illegal activities of the NSA might end the agency’s extrajudicial demolition of personal rights and democratic institutions.

Snowden threw a monkey wrench into the NSA’s grandest plans: expanding their talents beyond thwarting enemies of the U.S. to collecting damaging or embarrassing information about U.S. citizens and allies. He showed that top NSA officials consider everyone to be an enemy or potential enemy of the U.S., or at least of the NSA.

A Trump pardon of Snowden would likely ignite retaliation from the NSA that would go beyond Clapper, John Brennan and other former intel leaders attacking the President on MSNBC. The agencies that mastered the black arts of coups and assassinations might be motivated by self-preservation to send stronger messages.

While courageous people like Edward Snowden might be a threat to the Deep State, cowards like Trump are not. Trump won’t back down from crushing poor immigrants or taunting spineless Democratic leaders. But if you have the means to put up a fight — whether you’re the leader of a nuclear-armed nation or a former porn star with an attack-dog lawyer — the Donald will relent.

The President, always an opportunist, is using Snowden as poll bait. At most, he’ll toss out Snowden’s name from now until November to enhance his anti-Deep State image and to dominate headlines. When the election is over, most likely it’s goodbye Edward.

Trump’s Attorney General William Barr immediately criticized the President’s comments, stating he’d “vehemently oppose” a Snowden pardon. And Trump’s Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has publicly stated he thinks Snowden should be executed. With even his inner circle lining up against him, Trump won’t dare push the issue beyond dangling Snowden’s name for votes.

Add a Snowden Pardon to the List of Trump’s Most Infamous Spin Moves

Much of the mainstream press likes to portray Trump as an unstoppable autocrat. Although elected officials in the Democratic Party haven’t figured out a solution, smarter authorities have. A partial list of the President’s most obvious surrenders shows that, with the right disincentives, Trump not only can be stopped, he can be forced into full retreat:

• Removing U.S. troops from Syria, which he vowed to do in December 2018. The promised withdrawal never happened. We know that because he repeated the same promise 10 months later. You can’t remove troops that have already been removed, right? A New York Times report covering the second promised withdrawal in October 2019, summed up his first broken promise:

“Last December, Mr. Trump called for a complete United States withdrawal from Syria, but ultimately reversed himself after a backlash from Pentagon, diplomatic and intelligence officials, as well as important allies in Europe and the Middle East.”

• Removing U.S. troops from Syria, which he vowed to do in October 2019. Again the President retreated, quietly and completely, under pressure. Soon after, instead of removing troops, he increased the U.S. military presence in Syria under the guise of protecting a Syrian oilfield (from the Syrians).
• The “all or nothing” China deal. Trump insisted that no trade deal would be signed with China unless the Chinese agreed to all items he was pushing for. After three years of mutually assured economic destruction between the U.S. and China, Trump finally caved in. He announced a “Phase One” plan, the conditions of which have already been broken. To rub the failure in the President’s face, China didn’t bother to send its top leader to the signing ceremony to help Trump spin the deal as “the greatest trade deal ever.” Phases two and three seem unlikely to be seriously contemplated, much less completed.

To underscore the failure of Trump’s trade negotiations with China, consider that China now has more companies in the Fortune 500 than the U.S. Also, bankruptcies among U.S. farmers continue to increase, despite the Phase One agreement for China to greatly increase its purchase of U.S. agricultural products. All evidence suggests the Chinese government strung Donald along until the political damage became too extreme, and then they offered a deal that only partially repaired the trade-war damage and that the U.S. had no ability to enforce.

Snowden’s Last Hope: “Brave” Sir Donald Morphing into Angry Sir Donald

The great satirical group Monty Python caricatured self-aggrandizing “heroes” like President Trump in the movie Monty Python and the Holy Grail. In that film, the Brave Sir Robin objects to a little too much truth-telling by his hired minstrels as they sing

When danger reared its ugly head

He bravely turned his tail and fled

Yes, brave Sir Robin turned about

And gallantly he chickened out

The short clip is humorous, unless your name is Edward Snowden and you’re waiting for brave Sir Donald to put up a fight.

There is one ray of hope for Snowden. If Trump loses the election, his irrepressible urge for revenge will certainly kick in. He might decide a Snowden pardon is the perfect parting shot at the Deep State he only dared to shake his fist at from a distance.

[Editor’s Note: Since this piece was originally published on September 10, 2020 and with only a week until the election, President Trump has made no attempt to pardon Edward Snowden.]